Our Work
We advance financial stability through three integrated lines of work, each reinforcing the others—rigorous, explainable, and accessible.
Open Indices & Public Tools
We believe the most critical financial stability tools should be public goods—freely available, fully documented, and reproducible.
Macro-Financial Early-Warning Suite
A comprehensive system of high-frequency stress indicators covering multiple dimensions of macro-financial risk.
Scope
- Sovereign risk: Fiscal sustainability, debt dynamics, refinancing pressures
- Banking risk: Capital adequacy, asset quality, profitability, liquidity
- External/FX risk: Current account dynamics, reserve adequacy
- Corporate risk: Leverage, debt servicing capacity, sectoral stress
Features
- High-frequency updates (weekly/monthly)
- Rating bands with historical percentile context
- Turning-point detection algorithms
- Full documentation and reproducible code
Liquidity & Market-Stress Monitor
Short-horizon indicators designed to detect funding stress and market dysfunction in near-real-time.
Components
- Spread indicators: Credit spreads, term spreads, swap spreads
- Volume indicators: Trading volumes, repo market activity
- Market depth: Bid-ask spreads, price impact measures
- Fragmentation: Cross-venue arbitrage, settlement stress
Systemic-Risk Heatmap
A cross-country, cross-sector visualization of financial stability conditions.
Applications
- Global risk surveillance
- Country-specific deep dives
- Cross-border spillover analysis
- Communication to senior leadership
Methodology Hub
Comprehensive documentation of our analytical approaches—designed for both users and auditors.
Contents
- Methodology papers with full technical documentation
- Model cards with assumptions and limitations
- Version-controlled, tested code repository
- SHAP interpretability guides
Policy Analytics & Advisory
Our advisory work brings the rigor of our public research to specific client challenges—methodological, not advocacy.
Country Risk Reviews
Comprehensive assessments of macro-financial vulnerabilities with multi-dimensional risk scorecards, historical analysis, scenario modeling, and full methodology documentation.
For: Ministries of Finance, Multilateral Organizations, Central BanksSupervisory Dashboards
Custom-built monitoring tools with data system integration, real-time updates, calibrated alert thresholds, drill-down capabilities, and full SHAP-based explainability.
For: Banking Supervisors, Deposit Insurers, Macroprudential AuthoritiesStress-Test Scenario Design
Technical support for macroprudential exercises including scenario generation, calibration of linkages, satellite model development, and results interpretation.
For: Central Banks, Supervisors, Multilateral OrganizationsIndicator Validation
Independent assessment of existing early-warning systems with backtesting, methodology review, benchmark comparison, and improvement recommendations.
For: Central Banks, Supervisors evaluating vendor toolsRapid Diagnostics
Expedited analysis during stress episodes with fast-turnaround assessments, real-time indicator updates, briefing materials, and scenario analysis for policy options.
For: Financial Stability Councils, TreasuriesOur Principles
- Methodological, not advocacy: We provide analysis, not recommendations
- Knowledge transfer: Engagements include documentation and training
- Independence preserved: Advisory work does not influence public research
Training & Capacity Building
The best tools are only as effective as the people who use them. We invest heavily in training and capacity building.
Responsible AI for Financial Stability
For policy professionals considering AI adoption, supervisors evaluating ML-based tools, and risk managers implementing new analytics.
Curriculum
- Foundations of ML for macro-finance
- Interpretability methods (SHAP, LIME)
- Model governance and documentation
- Adoption frameworks for policy institutions
Building Macro-Financial Early-Warning Systems
For economists building EWS, data scientists transitioning to financial stability, and supervisory analysts developing monitoring tools.
Curriculum
- Data sources and preprocessing
- Crisis dating and feature engineering
- Model selection and gap-aware CV
- Building interpretability layers
From Notebook to Production
For data scientists with working prototypes, analysts seeking to operationalize research, and technical staff responsible for deployment.
Curriculum
- Software engineering for ML (Git, CI/CD)
- Pipeline design and orchestration
- Deployment patterns and monitoring
- Security considerations
Custom Workshops
For Central Banks & Supervisors
EWS bootcamps, interpretability training, methodology deep-dives
For Treasuries & Finance Ministries
Risk monitoring, debt sustainability analytics, stress testing
Train-the-Trainer Programs
Equip internal staff to deliver ongoing training
How Our Work Connects
Apply capability to specific challenges
Extend impact beyond direct delivery
Build collective capacity
Our public tools establish credibility and demonstrate capability. Advisory services apply that capability to specific challenges while generating practical learning. Training extends our impact beyond what we can deliver directly. All three contribute to our ultimate goal: a more stable financial system.
Ready to Partner?
Explore partnership opportunities or get in touch to discuss how we can support your financial stability objectives.